Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.055405 0.063338 0.072257 0.083076 0.095909 0.110725 0.129237
2025-11-16 0.043206 0.052833 0.064586 0.080151 0.100471 0.126439 0.162697
2025-11-23 0.034699 0.044911 0.058285 0.077424 0.104672 0.142971 0.202536
2025-11-30 0.029010 0.039534 0.054239 0.076873 0.111927 0.166108 0.260347
2025-12-07 0.024535 0.035025 0.050573 0.076188 0.119188 0.192190 0.334588
2025-12-14 0.020486 0.030443 0.045980 0.073181 0.122336 0.213497 0.412408
2025-12-21 0.016585 0.025453 0.039879 0.066435 0.117503 0.219737 0.466375
2025-12-28 0.014511 0.023057 0.037609 0.065926 0.124351 0.252182 0.600244
2026-01-04 0.013029 0.021415 0.036346 0.067063 0.135171 0.298797 0.807559
2026-01-11 0.011642 0.019720 0.034693 0.067102 0.143966 0.346016 1.063825
2026-01-18 0.010454 0.018206 0.033118 0.066982 0.152671 0.398890 1.402852
2026-01-25 0.009261 0.016509 0.030895 0.064937 0.156091 0.439796 1.755927
2026-02-01 0.008098 0.014732 0.028274 0.061520 0.155249 0.469541 2.122310
2026-02-08 0.007401 0.013791 0.027266 0.061838 0.165605 0.547447 2.912678
2026-02-15 0.006768 0.012891 0.026202 0.061790 0.175203 0.632527 3.989904
2026-02-22 0.006295 0.012263 0.025651 0.063022 0.189984 0.756127 5.822153
2026-03-01 0.005853 0.011642 0.025009 0.063870 0.204242 0.895656 8.517421
2026-03-08 0.005349 0.010816 0.023737 0.062554 0.210018 1.000142 11.507092
2026-03-15 0.004740 0.009679 0.021517 0.057801 0.199996 1.003412 13.097992
2026-03-22 0.004431 0.009202 0.020914 0.058067 0.211797 1.166679 19.326603
2026-03-29 0.004207 0.008897 0.020713 0.059638 0.230755 1.416128 31.577430
2026-04-05 0.003963 0.008513 0.020238 0.060168 0.245483 1.665393 50.107351
2026-04-12 0.003734 0.008139 0.019733 0.060474 0.259687 1.946710 81.036612